The Refill Effect
This is the stats paper, written like a proper study rather than a sales page: hypothesis, data, method, results, limitations. If you want to know whether the refill read holds up in data and exactly how it was tested, this is that document.
It is deliberately honest about the boundaries: what the refill clock predicts, what it does not, and why it works as confirmation inside a context rather than as a standalone signal. That honesty is the point, you should know exactly what an edge is before you trust it.
The video this comes from
The Origin of the Move: the model built on this research
Watch the video for the live walkthrough. The PDF is the same material structured for study, with every chart and level labelled.
Inside the PDF
- What book resiliency is and why refill speed matters
- The data: real MNQ sessions, tick by tick
- Method: how the refill clock was measured and tested
- Results, including the standalone null, stated plainly
- Refill as confirmation inside auction context
- Limitations, failure modes and what would falsify it
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